Alternative Premier League table after 32 games, based on expected goals
The Premier League season shows no signs of becoming predictable as we enter the final phase of the campaign.Manchester City have regained top spot with a win over Cardiff City, Tottenham have finally returned home and got back to winning way, but Wolverhampton Wanderers were able to pull off another top six shock as they beat Manchester United in midweek.Manchester City stars celebrate12
Manchester City stars celebrate
Fulham and Huddersfield might be relegated but everything is still to play for and it’s setting up for an intense finale.Most clubs have six matches to go after several games in hand were played this week and we’re still none the wiser about how the final standing will end.But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by ‘Expected Goals’? Here at talkSPORT.com were always keeping an eye onUnderstat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats.Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
20. Huddersfield – Real position = 20Games played – 32Real points = 14 | Expected points = 25.7819. Fulham – Real position = 19Games played – 33Real points = 17 | Expected points = 29.29Fulham will spend next season in the Championship12
Fulham will spend next season in the Championship
18. Cardiff City – Real position = 18Games played – 32Real points = 28 | Expected points = 30.8817. Newcastle United – Real position = 14Games played – 32Real points = 35 | Expected points = 30.9016. Brighton & Hove Albion – Real position = 15Games played – 31Real points = 33 | Expected points = 31.00Brighton striker Florin Andone celebrates a match-winning goal12
Brighton striker Florin Andone celebrates a match-winning goal
15. West Ham – Real position = 11Games played – 32Real points = 42 | Expected points = 35.2114. Southampton – Real position = 16Games played – 31Real points = 33 | Expected points = 35.2613. Burnley – Real position = 17Games played – 32Real points = 33 | Expected points = 35.76Burnley star Chris Wood celebrates.12
Burnley star Chris Wood celebrates.
12. Bournemouth – Real position = 12Games played – 32Real points = 38 | Expected points = 41.4111. Watford – Real position = 8Games played – 32Real points = 46 | Expected points = 41.9710. Everton – Real position = 10Games played – 32Real points = 43 | Expected points = 42.25Everton players celebrate with Gylfi Sigurdsson.12
Everton players celebrate with Gylfi Sigurdsson.
9. Crystal Palace – Real position = 13Games played – 32Real points = 36 | Expected points = 44.268. Leicester – Real position = 9Games played – 32Real points = 44 | Expected points = 47.297. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 7Games played – 32Real points = 47 | Expected points = 49.84Diogo Jota scored Wolves’ opener against Man United12
Diogo Jota scored Wolves’ opener against Man United
6. Arsenal – Real position = 4Games played – 31Real points = 63 | Expected points = 50.67Aaron Ramsey scored and captained Arsenal to a 2-0 win over Newcastle on Monday12
Aaron Ramsey scored and captained Arsenal to a 2-0 win over Newcastle on Monday
5. Manchester United – Real position = 6Games played – 32Real points = 61 | Expected points = 53.34It was a dreadful night for Man United and Solskjaer at the Molineux on TuesdayGetty12
It was a dreadful night for Man United and Solskjaer at the Molineux on Tuesday
4. Tottenham – Real position = 3Games played – 32Real points = 64 | Expected points = 53.35Tottenham Hotspur players celebrate12
Tottenham Hotspur players celebrate
3. Chelsea – Real position = 5Games played – 32Real points = 63 | Expected points = 59.76Chelsea starlet Callum Hudson-Odoigetty12
Chelsea starlet Callum Hudson-Odoi
2. Liverpool – Real position = 2Games played – 32Real points = 79 | Expected points = 70.60Liverpool beat Spurs 2-1 last weekend12
Liverpool beat Spurs 2-1 last weekend
1. Manchester City – Real position = 1Games played – 32Real points = 80 | Expected points = 77.25Will Manchester City be celebrating at the end of the season?12
Will Manchester City be celebrating at the end of the season?


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But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by 'Expected Goals'? Here at talkSPORT.com we're always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats. Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…
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